The latest report from the Interwoven-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cautions that humans and natural ecosystems are now pushed beyond their adaptation limits due to climate change. India is highly vulnerable and will need a transformational climate action that cuts across sectors and regions to reduce substantial economic losses and damage to lives and biodiversity. A transformational climate action would require political will and administrative implementation at all levels, from panchayats to state and national levels. We would need a collective effort involving citizens, institutions and infrastructural redesign to reduce the risks from extreme weather events like flooding, cyclones, sea-level rise, heat waves and droughts.
The IPCC report says that vulnerability and inability to adapt are more in regions where unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity and marginalization are large. It says that up to 3.6 billion people living in this context are threatened. This is true for most of South Asia, surrounded by rapidly changing seas and mountains.
Immediate, integrated and transformational climate action while we cannot eliminate the multiple risks that global warming presents to ecosystems and humans, the report explicitly throws a ray of hope at us. Immediate actions that limit global warming to 1.5°C would substantially reduce losses and damages related to climate change that would otherwise be disastrous at higher warming levels.
The current report gives clear indications of what we lack with adaptation and how we can advance towards reducing multiple climate risks. First, many adaptation measures now are quick fixes and therefore reduce long-term benefits. We need transformational adaptation to reduce the root causes of vulnerability by shifting systems away from unsustainable trajectories. Second, adaptation requires working across sectors and regions at different levels. Integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that address climate risks considering social inequities increase the effectiveness of adaptation.
Pushing the limits of adaptation
In many cases, soft limits of human adaptation have been reached due to lack of financial support or adaptation measures. For example, coastal villages of India under imminent threats due to cyclonic storm surges, flooding; coastal erosion and depleting fisheries are those communities with low income. Hence the ability to relocate depends on the political and financial support of the local government. In these cases, risks can be reduced by addressing financial, governance and policy constraints for human adaptation.
For some ecosystems, hard limits to adaptation have reached, where any foreseeable measures in the future will not help. For example, many species, including humans and food crops like rice and wheat, have thermal limits to survival. Increased heat waves, droughts and floods are already exceeding the tolerance thresholds of plants and animals, driving mass mortalities in trees and corals. They have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on Small Islands, and the Arctic.
Restoring degraded ecosystems and conserving 30-50% of the land, freshwater and oceanic habitats, can help achieve a sustainable future, but that requires adequate finance and political support.
Political commitment
The IPCC writes in detail about the requirement for political commitment and mobilization of adequate financial resources. Climate change is still not a critical factor determining the electoral outcome in India. However, India hosts the largest population that is under threat on a daily basis to rising cyclones, floods, rising sea levels, heat waves and droughts. It is high time that climate change is a top priority on electoral charts. India needs climate change-aware administrators and policymakers at the panchayat, district, state and national levels.
Collective action
Though climate change is global, the impacts and adaptation measures are local. For example, impacts of climate change are aggravated during floods and landslides due to the way we manage our hills, forests and rivers. States might need to strengthen and implement their land-use policies. Political and administrative will is a must if India is working towards sustained adaptation.
Tackling the different challenges due to climate change requires collective action-governments, private sector and communities should work together to priorities risk reduction. Local citizens can work with panchayats, schools and colleges, engineers and scientists to assess the risks and monitor weather events. Starting climate action at schools is a good option, by equipping each school with rain gauge and temperature-humidity sensors. The cost will be between Rs 1,000-7,000 per school. If we can install solar panels and rain-water harvesting and recharging in these institutions, that will be the next step towards climate action and mitigation – and will ensure energy and water security too.
How far will climate change impact Hi Malayan region and its river systems?
More Chamoli-type (flash floods tragedy of February 2021) disasters are expected. Every additional fraction of warming raises the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic conditions such as heavy precipitation, landslides and changing water cycle in the Himalayan region, impacting people, infrastructure and economies. So, some areas will have more significant risks and limits to adaptation. In the Indus River basin, which is essentially a glacier-and snow-fed system, irrigation will be affected, leading to food insecurity risks. Himalayan rivers also feed the groundwater systems, and so Indo-Gangetic plains where groundwater use is prevalent will be hugely affected.
The climate crisis worsens
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate T Change (IPCC)’s report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, released on Monday, is an unvarnished account of the expanding footprint of the climate crisis on the world. At least 40% of the world’s population is “highly vulnerable”, the study finds. Mass mortality events on land and ocean, first climate-driven extinctions, loss of hundreds of local species, death and disease due to extreme heat are some of the possibly irreversible impacts of the climate crisis, the report said. The extent and magnitude of the impact is more significant than previously estimated, and the risks are becoming challenging to manage because of multiple hazards coinciding. But there is hope: If the temperature rise is kept below 15°C, it would reduce losses.
For Asia and India, the news is grim. International trans-boundary river basins could face severe water scarcity by 2050. Ahmadabad has a high risk from heat, and Mumbai from floods and sea-level rise. Continued warming will further damage India’s economy, particularly if emissions are not rapidly eliminated. Global warming will also impact food security and weaken soil health and ecosystem services such as pollination.
India has been facing the brunt of the climate crisis for years now. A 2021 study by the Council for Energy, Environment, and Water said that 75% of Indian districts, including 95% of coastal ones, are extreme climate-event hotspots. While India has made bold promises (net-zero by 2070, 500 GW renewable energy by 2030, and setting up a coalition for building disaster-resilient infrastructure), the latest IPCC report must push the Centre and states to Increase the pace of implementation and employ a climate lens while designing large-scale projects which can affect the environment. While many states, and a few districts, have formulated climate action plans, there needs to be greater synergy among the national, state, and district action plans. To achieve this, many experts feel India needs a separate climate crisis ministry. For the West, the report is yet another stern reminder that it has failed to do its share to mitigate the crisis and meet the longstanding demands of developing countries to pay for loss and damage, increase funding for climate adaptation and the pace of green energy transition. As the report states, there is a “narrow window of opportunity to move towards a climate resilient future. There’s no time to lose.
The Ganga, Indus, Amu Darya and other river basins in Asia could face severe weather. water scarcity by 2050 due to climate crisis and related impacts that act as stress multipliers, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned.
Among Asian cities, Ahmadabad faces a high risk from the so-called urban heat island effect (urban centers seeing higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas) and Mumbai is at high risk from floods and sea level rise, the IPCC has said. It adds that while Ahmadabad has adopted some institutional policies to adapt to these risks, Mumbai hasn’t.
Overall, South Asia is among the most vulnerable regions in the world when it comes to severe climate impacts due to extreme poverty and inequity, IPCC underlined. The climate cri sis is already increasing vector and water-borne diseases, under nutrition, mental disorders and allergic diseases in Asia by increasing hazards such as heat waves, flooding and drought, air pollution. in combination with higher expo sure and vulnerability, IPCC’s report titled “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” flagged.
In addition to all-cause mortality, deaths related to circulatory, respiratory, diabetic and infectious disease, as well as infant mortality is on the rise in Asia with high temperatures. A spike in heavy rain events and temperature will increase the risk of diarrheal diseases, dengue fever and malaria. More frequent hot days and intense heat-waves will also increase heat-related deaths, the Asia factsheet of the report said.
“Extreme-heat puts additional load on the circulatory system, which has to do additional work to cool the body via perspiration. This may lead to dehydration and increased metabolism. Excess heat may be linked to increase or exacerbation of complications of diabetes due to dehydration and increased metabolism. Infant mortality will rise because children are not able to control their body temperature well,” said Dilip Malvankar, director, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gujarat.
There has also been biodiversity or habitat loss of animals and plants due to the climate crisis in some parts of Asia. Future climate change would cause greater biodiversity and habitat loss, modeling studies indicate. The risk of irreversible loss of coral reefs, tidal marshes, sea grass meadows, plankton communities and other marine and coastal ecosystems will increase.
Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF)-sudden release of water from a lake fed by glacier melt – will threaten local and downstream communities in High Mountain Asia.
Climate change caused loss to infrastructure, disruption in services and affected supply chains in Asia and will increase risk to infra structure further — even as it creates opportunities to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and green jobs, the report said. “Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (eg: smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing com munities),” the summary for policy makers of the report said.
At 2 degree C or higher global warming, food security risks due to climate change will be more severe, leading to malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiencies, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central and South America and Small Islands.
“This report rightly puts a spotlight on how vulnerability is exacerbated by existing inequities and factors like colonialism. Rich countries must now do their fair share and meet the long standing demands from developing countries to pay up for loss and damage,” said Harjeet Singh, Senior Adviser, Climate Action Network International.